Friday, October 01, 2004

casualty count

Another site with casualty counts in Iraq provides more data. Most striking is the clear numbers on coalition members' casualty counts. Also of interest is the 4 week moving average, which seems to be trending up again. Unofrtunately, numbers like that are hardly partisan (ie. numbers don't like) which means that things are much worse than Bush would like us to believe.

Good question from Centerfield: what about Osama?

It seems most are now forgetting about him but Where's OSAMA? Has he become the emanuel goldstein of our times?

Debate 1 linkdump: even more

This time from Allahpundit, more links. One can end up reading about the debates all weekend.

Stretching the truth but not lying.

Memo to Fox: Release the video

If the following story from Talking Point Memos is true, Fox has some interesting quotes. The only way they could make it clear whether it is true or not would be to actually release video showing this to be the case.

Debates: The morning after

The Moderate voice offers a good sumary of links around the blogosphere about last night's debates. Hopefully, polls will soon come out showing us how it actually played out with the electorate. At the end of the day what a few blogger say does not matter much in terms of numbers of votes.

The Internet is always full of suprise

Debates round 1

Well, the first debate was last night and it looks like the agreement around the blogosphere and the punditocracy is that Kerry won this round. There is little I can add in terms of new opinion on this. Let's not forget, however, that one performance does not win an election. It is abundantly clear that Bush is a very strong speaker who had one bad performance last night. Just because Kerry did well in the first debate is no guarantee that he will do well in the next rounds.

At first glance, Kerry presented a different message than Bush. It will be interesting to see how they both react in the townhall format, which is clearly where Bush shines. Remember the 2000 debate: Bush clearly beat Gore in the town hall debate, showing that he can connect with regular people. It is very clear that Bush will win this format as it does not favor Kerry.

The next immediate debate, however, is Edwards vs. Cheney on Tuesday at CWRU. Because Cheney has been in politics for a longer time, this is one of those debates where I think we will see a potentially devastating win for the republicans. Edwards tactics may work in a court of law but Cheney knows how to run a debate, having done so on many occasion. Watch for a net-net win for republicans in that debate.

Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Good News in Iraq

Based on my most recent assessment, the situation in Iraq was going to look grim in terms of body count. A couple of weeks ago, I was predicting 85 deaths this month. With only a 3 days to go, there are now 73 dead in Iraq in september. Refactoring, this means that the number of casualties in iraq averaged 2.7 per day in september. Granted, this is a vast increase over the 2.16 average of the previous month.

Based on a quick excel run on the numbers things don't look good:







































































































Month
# of death Average

March-03



59



1.903225806



April-03



92



3.066666667



May-03



31



1



June-03



34



1.133333333



July-03



42



1.35483871



August-03



37



1.193548387



September-03



33



1.1



October-03



47



1.516129032



November-03



84



2.8



December-03



49



1.580645161



January-04



43



1.387096774



February-04



31



1.107142857



March-04



42



1.35483871



April-04



129



4.3



May-04



80



2.580645161



June-04



52



1.733333333



July-04



60



1.935483871



August-04



67



2.161290323



September-04



73



2.433333333




Looks like the averages are trending up... This is pretty bad news and another sign that things in Iraq are getting worth.

Monday, September 27, 2004

Finally some real data

OK, so it's overseas...

The liberal media strikes again...

... with news that the GOP is outsourcing work to overseas workers. Well, at least we now know where PCworld stands on the political spectrum.

More on the developing situation in Ohio

According to Atrios, the situation in Ohio is not only worrisome, it may actually be in violation of overall federal law.

I would add the following comments from the most important document in the US, the constitution:
Amendment XV

Section 1.
The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.

Section 2.
The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.
and of course:

The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of sex.

Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.


Strategy: Karl Rove in a Corner

Those interested in reading about strategies in the campaign might want to read the following story from the Atlantic monthly: Karl Rove in a Corner

I need not remind readers of this blog of who Rove is. Depending on your political orientation, you might think of him as a brilliant strategist or the spawn of satan. Either way, the article provides great background on the man behind the man in the Bush campaign.

How much does that paper weight

Interesting info about voting manipulation in Ohio. It is simply appaling that they would use such excuse to deny registration. This is not a partisan issue on either side. Members of both parties should be appaled. Call 614 466 3910 and voice your concern, unless you want democracy to end in Ohio.