Friday, October 01, 2004

Debates round 1

Well, the first debate was last night and it looks like the agreement around the blogosphere and the punditocracy is that Kerry won this round. There is little I can add in terms of new opinion on this. Let's not forget, however, that one performance does not win an election. It is abundantly clear that Bush is a very strong speaker who had one bad performance last night. Just because Kerry did well in the first debate is no guarantee that he will do well in the next rounds.

At first glance, Kerry presented a different message than Bush. It will be interesting to see how they both react in the townhall format, which is clearly where Bush shines. Remember the 2000 debate: Bush clearly beat Gore in the town hall debate, showing that he can connect with regular people. It is very clear that Bush will win this format as it does not favor Kerry.

The next immediate debate, however, is Edwards vs. Cheney on Tuesday at CWRU. Because Cheney has been in politics for a longer time, this is one of those debates where I think we will see a potentially devastating win for the republicans. Edwards tactics may work in a court of law but Cheney knows how to run a debate, having done so on many occasion. Watch for a net-net win for republicans in that debate.


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