Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Good News in Iraq

Based on my most recent assessment, the situation in Iraq was going to look grim in terms of body count. A couple of weeks ago, I was predicting 85 deaths this month. With only a 3 days to go, there are now 73 dead in Iraq in september. Refactoring, this means that the number of casualties in iraq averaged 2.7 per day in september. Granted, this is a vast increase over the 2.16 average of the previous month.

Based on a quick excel run on the numbers things don't look good:







































































































Month
# of death Average

March-03



59



1.903225806



April-03



92



3.066666667



May-03



31



1



June-03



34



1.133333333



July-03



42



1.35483871



August-03



37



1.193548387



September-03



33



1.1



October-03



47



1.516129032



November-03



84



2.8



December-03



49



1.580645161



January-04



43



1.387096774



February-04



31



1.107142857



March-04



42



1.35483871



April-04



129



4.3



May-04



80



2.580645161



June-04



52



1.733333333



July-04



60



1.935483871



August-04



67



2.161290323



September-04



73



2.433333333




Looks like the averages are trending up... This is pretty bad news and another sign that things in Iraq are getting worth.

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